Cummins 'less likely than likely' for Ashes opener amid ongoing back recovery

Australia captain Pat Cummins has cast fresh doubt on his availability for the opening Ashes Test against England, admitting he is “less likely than likely” to feature in the Perth clash starting November 21, as he continues to recover from a back injury.

Speaking at a Fox Cricket season launch event in Sydney on Monday, Cummins revealed he has only just resumed running and is still at least a couple of weeks away from bowling, following a lumbar bone stress issue diagnosed in early September.

The injury has sidelined Cummins since Australia’s Test series in the Caribbean in July, and while his recovery is progressing steadily, the 32-year-old says the timeline remains tight.

“I'd say probably less likely than likely,” Cummins said about his chances of playing the first Test. “But we've still got a bit of time. I'm running today and kind of every second day, and each run’s a little bit longer. Bowling prep starts next week, so probably a couple of weeks before I’m actually bowling on turf.”

Cummins said he would ideally need around four weeks of bowling in the nets to prepare his body for the demands of Test cricket.

“If you're to play in a Test match, you want to make sure you're right to bowl 20 overs in a day and not have to think about it,” he said. “Four weeks is pretty tight, but somewhere around that mark.”

The Australia skipper described the recovery process as cautious and methodical, with specific gym work now transitioning to cricket-specific preparation. He admitted the back had taken longer than expected to settle after the initial diagnosis.

“It’s kind of a little stiff — partly from the injury and partly because it hasn’t been used for a while,” Cummins explained. “Each session we ramp up a little more to see how the body responds. Right now, I’m feeling good, and the symptoms have gone.”

While the injury comes at an unfortunate time — just weeks ahead of a marquee home Ashes series — Cummins said he was trying to remain pragmatic.

“Some days I’m annoyed because it’s the Ashes, it’s a big summer. But I’ve had seven or eight years of almost uninterrupted home seasons,” he said. “Maybe it’s my turn. Someone like Josh [Hazlewood] has had a rougher run.”

Australia coach Andrew McDonald had earlier flagged this week as a key checkpoint in Cummins’ rehab, with a final decision on the first Test expected soon. While McDonald remained optimistic about Cummins playing a role at some stage in the series, the skipper himself was reluctant to commit.

“It’s a bit early to know,” Cummins said. “With these things, it’s pretty hard to go from not bowling at all to playing five Tests. First, I’ve got to give myself a chance to be ready. Then we’ll work it out closer to the time.”

Despite the setback, Cummins is confident the injury won’t have long-term repercussions. He noted that while the lumbar issue is a familiar one — having dealt with similar problems early in his career — he’s now better equipped to manage it.

“It’s a back injury I haven’t had for seven or eight years, and I’ve played a lot of cricket since then,” he said. “Back then, I didn’t know what my body could handle. Now I know that if I get it right and take my time, there’s no reason I can’t come back and play even more cricket than before.”

Australia begin their five-Test Ashes series against England on November 21 in Perth, followed by matches in Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane. Cummins’ availability remains a crucial piece of the puzzle for the hosts, who are looking to regain the urn after losing the 2023 series in England 2-1.